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What to Look For in the 2025 Belmont Stakes at Saratoga
Written by John Furgele, SaratogaRaceTrack.com
The field is set for the 157th Belmont Stakes at Saratoga. And, in case you didn’t know, the Belmont is the oldest of the three Triple Crown races, six years older than the Kentucky Derby, seven older than the Preakness.
We’re getting the top three finishers from the Derby—Sovereignty, Journalism, and Baeza, so for starters, that’s a good thing for both NYRA and the race. We’re also getting Hill Road, who won the Peter Pan Stakes at Aqueduct on May 10. That race may not be a major one, but any time a horse crosses the finish line first—with a 99 speed rating to boot—in a stakes race, you must take notice.
Tonalist won the 2014 Peter Pan at Belmont Park and then, in the Belmont Stakes, thwarted California Chrome’s shot at Triple Crown glory by winning. I think winning races matters, I’ll be curious to see what the bettors think.
I’m surprised by the omission of Final Gambit. He ran a strong fourth in the Derby and you’d think the Belmont would be the perfect spot for him, but I guess his connections have big summer and fall plans for the son of Not This Time.
Owen Almighty and Burnham Square, the Derby’s fifth and sixth place finishers are also skipping the Belmont, which proves that spacing out these races doesn’t necessarily mean consistent participation. While Americans love the pursuit of the Triple Crown, the people that work with the horses might not. For those that think a “space out,” is an easy solution, think again.
Look for Rodriguez to draw interest from the bettors. He won the Wood Memorial in April and many are intrigued by the front running colt. And, because he missed both the Derby and Preakness, bettors seemed to be taken in by the “aura of the unknown.” They think he’s a good horse because he hasn’t raced. That’s a hole I won’t fall into. He has the potential to be a good horse going forward, but I wouldn’t expect the Belmont Stakes to be his coming out party.
The horse to like is Baeza. While eyes were rightly focused on the duel between Sovereignty and Journalism, Baeza (3rd place) was coming like a freight train. As they say, had the race been another 100 yards, he’d have won, but the Belmont, like the Derby, is a 10 furlong (1 1/4 miles) affair. He fought a lot of traffic in the 20-horse Derby field, something that shouldn’t be the case in an eight-horse Belmont.
When they go to the post, I predict that Baeza will be the favorite. The wise guys will be out to beat Sovereignty and Journalism, and they think Baeza is the horse to do it. The new bettors will be attracted to Baeza, too. Unlike the day-to-day bettors, the casual fan likes to bet names, jockeys, numbers, as well as horses that come in as an underdog. Baeza checks those boxes, but make no mistake, he is a top 3-year-old and a serious threat to win Saturday.
Crudo may be a live one to look at. The son of Justify won the Sir Barton Stakes at Pimlico on May 17 with an impressive speed rating of 100. Prior to that, he broke his maiden at Keeneland on April 19 with a speed rating of 99. If you like speed ratings and horses that get there first, Crudo might be worth betting a few bucks on, and at the very least, using in your exotics. He also has good pedigree as the son of 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify.
On Sunday, Crudo worked out at the Oklahoma training track, breezing four furlongs in an easy 48.86. John Velazquez gets the mount for trainer Todd Pletcher. Pletcher knows the competition will be stiff, but he likes the way his colt looks.
“He worked really well,” Pletcher said. “It’s (the Belmont) a pretty strong field, but we like the way he’s training, and his last two races have been really good.”
Uncaged, also trained by Pletcher will be the longest shot in the field. He’s two for four in allowance races this year and finished sixth in the Peter Pan. Owner Mike Repole is willing to take a shot because of the short field. If he were to win, it could go down as one of the bigger upsets in Belmont Stakes history.
In his win, an $82,000 allowance, he did surge, going from sixth at the quarter, fifth at the half and three-quarter marks, before moving to second in the stretch. His speed figure was just 84, but when you win the race, that number takes a back seat.
On paper, Journalism is the horse to beat. His resume is great, his courage in the Preakness win will be studied for years, and his 109 (Preakness) speed rating is outstanding. That said, will he be tired from running his third race in five weeks? He’s done too much for me to leave out, but I’m thinking he gets a hard-fought second.
Horse Racing 98 Selections:
- Win: Baeza
- Place: Journalism
- Show: Crudo
Author Bio: John Furgele has followed horse racing since 1977, attending his first race at Fort Erie in 1985. Over four decades, he’s witnessed legendary moments—from Seattle Slew to the Affirmed vs. Alydar rivalry—and remains passionate about both horse and harness racing. He continues to share honest insights on the sport’s triumphs and challenges.
