This year’s Kentucky Derby is fascinating for many reasons. First and foremost, is the return of trainer Bob Baffert. The two-time Triple Crown winner was banned from racing horses at Churchill Downs for the last three years (2022-2024), but after exhausting litigation, he is back. He will saddle two horses; the front running Rodriguez and Citizen Bull, at odds of 12/1 and 20/1 respectively.
Journalism is the morning line favorite. The Santa Anita Derby winner is two-for-two in 2025, winning the San Felipe Stakes and the Santa Anita Derby. His speed figures have been impressive–105 or better in four of his five career starts–and he has shown a knack of being able to get out of trouble when needed. The Michael McCarthy trained colt will be ridden by Umberto Rispoli and will start from post eight.
The above-mentioned Rodriguez will try to break a 24-year drought for Wood Memorial winners. New York’s signature Derby-prep race has not seen its winner capture the Run for Roses since Fusaichi Pegasus did it back in 2000. Does that mean West Coast and Southern racing is better than what takes place in New York? Of course not, but for those who follow the NYRA circuit, it would be nice to break the drought. Rodriguez should be one of the front runners, but as we know, pace makes the race. If the fractions are moderate, the Baffert-trained colt has a chance, if not, he could finish well back.
D. Wayne Lukas continues to make his presence known in Triple Crown races. The 89-year old trainer has won the Derby four times and last year, he won the Preakness with Seize the Grey. This year, he saddles American Promise, coming off a March 15 victory in the Virginia Derby. The colt certainly has the bloodlines; his father Justify won the Triple Crown in 2018, and his grandfather, Tapit, is one of the all-time great sires.
There are seven major Derby races that offer the winner 100 points, and if you believe that winning a big race is the recipe for Derby success, you may want to consider these colts.
Rodriguez won the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. Current odds: 12/1
Sandman won the Arkansas Derby. Current odds: 6/1
Burnham Square won the Bluegrass Stakes. Current odds: 12/1
Journalism won the Santa Anita Derby. Current odds: 3/1
Tiztastic won the Louisiana Derby. Current odds: 20/1
Final Gambit won the Jeff Ruby Stakes. Current odds: 30/1
Tappan Street won the Florida Derby but will not race due to injury.
You may look at those odds and wonder why only two horses are listed under 10/1, but this is The Kentucky Derby. With 20 horses, you’re not going to see 4/5 and 6/5 unless the betting public bets the horses down come Saturday.
The other thing to watch will be the TV audience. The Derby remains a staple of Americana and because of that, NBC enjoys a robust rating. Last year, the telecast averaged 16.7 million viewers and peaked at 20.7 million for the race. Those numbers beat The Masters, the NCAA basketball championships, the NBA Finals, the Stanley Cup Final and the World Series.
The numbers drop off for the final two Triple Crown races–the Preakness and the Belmont–and even if a Triple Crown is on the line, the Belmont rating won’t beat the Derby. Last year’s Preakness Stakes drew 5.5 million viewers and the Belmont Stakes at Saratoga drew 3.66 million.
The Kentucky Derby kicks off the traditional 2025 racing season. Americans like routines and the Triple Crown pattern remains tried and true. On May 17, the Preakness Stakes will be contested at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore with the Belmont Stakes (at Saratoga) scheduled for June 7.