What a glorious Kentucky Derby. Despite the rain and sloppy track, that was about as clean and crisp a race that you will see. Yes, there were horses getting bumped, getting stopped, and getting boxed in, but with 19 horses, that’s a guarantee. All that said, the race was in a word–terrific.
A scintillating stretch drive between the favorite Journalism and 7-1 Sovereignty will go down as legendary. The favorite had no excuse. He was there, poised to take it; he just got outrun by–on this day–a better colt.
Often, after a race, you lament that the best horse didn’t win; or that perhaps the better horse was compromised. While America loves its underdogs, like 80-1 Rich Strike in 2022, in horse racing, we like to see the ones who might have staying power win the biggest races.
That’s what you got in the 151st Kentucky Derby. Journalism came in with four straight wins, each with a speed figure over 100. Sovereignty’s resume was pretty good, too. Perhaps most important, the son of Into Mischief won the Street Sense Stakes at Churchill Downs last October.
This year, he won the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park and then finished second to Tappan Street in the Grade 1 Florida Derby (at Gulfstream Park). He might not have been “as good” as Journalism, but he was no slouch and at 9-1, the wise guys agreed.
That’s what makes 3-year old racing so great and at the same time, so unpredictable. Some mature faster than others and therefore, are ready to run on the first Saturday in May. Clearly, Journalism and Sovereignty were ready.
Some horses take longer to mature and though they made it to the starting gate for the Derby, their best racing may be later in the year. This year’s Travers winner might not come from the Derby, Preakness, or Belmont field.
When I look at races like the Derby, I like to focus on the top six finishers to see if one of them might take off and blossom going forward. Baeza finished a hard-charging third. He came to Louisville as an also-eligible, meaning he had to hope a horse scratched so he could enter the fray. And when Rodriguez did just that, the son of McKinzie–the 2019 Whitney Handicap winner–had his chance.
Baeza came into the stretch, veered to his right, before finally realizing that he needed to go left to get to the finish line. Once he came too, he was charging hard and while most were focused on the first two finishers, I’d keep an eye on this one. If he matures, he could be a dangerous one going forward.
Like Baeza, fourth place finisher Final Gambit was coming at the finish. Perhaps a little more schooling could pay off for the son of Into Mischief and grandson of one of the greatest sires, Tapit.
Owen Almighty finished fifth and though he was gassed at the end, you have to give the son of Speightstown some kudos. He was on the pace from the get-go and was the only speed horse there at the end. Add to the fact that he was a March foal could indicate that he will mature with his best racing days ahead of him.
Burnham Square was sixth and I’m not sure what to make of his trip. He wasn’t charging at the end, but he was 12th at the mile, 11th in the stretch and sixth at the finish. Was this merely a case of passing tired horses, or do we praise him for making up six spots in the last 440 yards?
The race really had it all. Final Gambit went right to the back. He was 19th (and last) and stayed there through six furlongs, which the leaders traveled in 1:10.78. Over the next quarter mile, he passed eight horses, and then six more in the stretch and one more in the final 220 yards to get up for fourth. Supporters will point to his closing skills; detractors will say he merely swept by horses that were stopping.
Baeza hit the checkpoints in 14th, 15th, 12th, and fourth before rallying to get third. That will certainly win him some new fans as 2025 rolls on.
To be fair, Sovereignty hit those same markers in 16th, 16th, 17th, and then fourth, but we all knew at the milepost he was in it to win it. Journalism also came on strong, passing the markers in 10th, 10th, and 11th, before charging to third at the mile.
Next up–the Preakness, and this is where the chess game begins. Naturally, winning trainer Bill Mott was coy about sending Sovereignty to Baltimore, but he did acknowledge that if the colt checks out, it has to be done, because that’s the expectation and Mott, a class guy, knows this.
We didn’t hear about the plans for Journalism. I could see him skipping the Preakness and resting up for the Belmont at Saratoga on June 7, but if Sovereignty heads to Pimlico, would the Journalism connections want that shot at redemption?
That’s what makes the Triple Crown compelling. We know Rodriguez, should he recover, will be there, and should he win the Preakness, his connections will play the what if card until June 7.
We’ll let things play out and over the next five to seven days we will get the clearer picture for the second jewel of the Triple Crown–the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore.